Nanfouet, Marco Alberto 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4706-1567, Epule, Terence Epule ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5756-382X, Kpadé, Cokou Patrice, Peng, Changhui et Molua, Ernest L.
(2026).
Impacts of recent warming on crop production in Québec.
Modeling Earth Systems and Environment
, 12
.
Article 173.
doi:10.1007/s40808-026-02818-4
Repéré dans Depositum à
https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1826
Résumé
Agriculture remains one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate warming. Due to climate warming, there is a need for context specific actions to adapt agricultural systems and to build resilience. In Quebec, there are currently no studies that provide a provincial scale analysis of the impacts of seasonal climate on agricultural systems. As such, it is difficult to provide provincial scale predictions that will enhance adaptation with broad provincial scale implications. This paper provides a provincial scale analysis of the impacts of recent warming through changing seasonal temperatures and precipitations on the production of three crops (maple syrup, barley and soybeans) in Québec. Time series data for the period 1970–2023 on the production of maple syrup, soybeans, and barley were sourced from statistics Canada. CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5) climatic data such as annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation for the period 1970–2023 were collected from Ouranos. The data were subjected to a test of stationarity through the Augmented Dick-Fuller Test (ADF), correlation analysis and multiple linear regression modeling. The results indicate that changing temperatures and precipitations have the strongest association on soybeans production, followed by barley and maple syrup. Decreasing summer and spring temperatures alongside increasing autumn precipitations have a positive and significant influence on soybeans production. Meanwhile, increasing autumn temperatures and declining autumn precipitations have a positive and significant association on barley production. Furthermore, declining winter temperatures have a significant positive influence on maple syrup production. This study concludes that rising temperatures and varying precipitation patterns significantly influence Quebec’s crop production and could affect the province’s food security and food trade.
| Type de document: | Article |
|---|---|
| Informations complémentaires: | La version officielle de cet article a été publiée dans la revue Modeling Earth Systems and Environment en 2026. Le texte intégral de l’article est disponible en libre accès sur le site de la revue : https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-026-02818-4 |
| Mots-clés libres: | Climate change; Crop production; Maple syrup; Soybeans; Barley; Québec |
| Divisions: | Agriculture |
| Date de dépôt: | 26 mai 2026 17:16 |
| Dernière modification: | 26 mai 2026 17:16 |
| URI: | https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1826 |
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